Q.14. “In an era of shifting geo-political alliances, particularly after the COVID-19 pandemic, the influence of developed and developing countries’ policies on India’s strategic interest demands nuanced examination.” Analyze the multi-faceted impact of evolving foreign policies and political dynamics of major powers on India’s national security and regional stability. Provide recent examples and propose innovative diplomatic strategies to safeguard India’s interest amidst global uncertainties.
05,Oct 2024
Posted By : SPM IAS Academy
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In the post-COVID-19 world, shifting geopolitical alliances and evolving foreign policies of both developed and developing countries have had significant implications for India’s national security and regional stability. The U.S.-China rivalry, growing multipolarity, the Ukraine-Russia conflict, and increasing focus on Indo-Pacific security have all necessitated a nuanced examination of India’s strategic interests. With its aspirations for greater global influence, India must adeptly navigate these changes by recalibrating its diplomatic and strategic approaches.
Multi-Faceted Impact of Evolving Foreign Policies on India’s Strategic Interests
1. U.S.-China Rivalry and Its Impact on India’s Security
The U.S.-China rivalry has intensified, especially in the Indo-Pacific region, where India is a key player. The U.S.’s pivot to Asia and its commitment to countering China’s growing influence have positioned India as a strategic partner in ensuring regional stability.
Impact on India:
India’s role in QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue), alongside the U.S., Japan, and Australia, has strengthened its position in the Indo-Pacific but also intensified geopolitical tensions with China, particularly along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh.
Example: The 2020 Galwan Valley clash between Indian and Chinese troops highlights the direct security implications of China’s assertiveness in the region. The confrontation underlined the importance of India’s alliances with other powers to balance China’s influence.
India’s Response: India has bolstered its strategic ties with the U.S. through agreements such as the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) and Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), enabling greater intelligence sharing and military logistics support.
2. Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Shifting Global Power Equations
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has had a profound impact on global geopolitics, with ripple effects on India’s foreign policy. India, historically a close partner of Russia, has had to navigate the complex dynamics between the West and Russia while safeguarding its strategic interests.
Impact on India:
Defense Cooperation: India is heavily dependent on Russia for defense supplies, with around 60-70% of India’s military hardware originating from Russia. Western sanctions on Russia have created uncertainties regarding future defense supplies and spare parts.
Energy Security: India has managed to maintain strong energy ties with Russia, especially after the Ukraine war, as Russia became a major supplier of discounted crude oil to India. In 2023, Russia overtook Iraq as India’s largest oil supplier.
Diplomatic Tightrope: India has maintained a neutral stance on the Russia-Ukraine war, balancing its historical ties with Russia while continuing its engagement with the West. This neutrality has allowed India to avoid getting entangled in the conflict’s geopolitical fault lines.
Example: India’s abstention from UN votes condemning Russia underscores its attempt to strike a balance between its strategic autonomy and preserving relations with both Russia and the West.
3. Growing Influence of China in South Asia and Indian Ocean Region
China’s growing influence in South Asia through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and infrastructure projects in countries like Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Nepal poses a challenge to India’s regional hegemony.
Impact on India:
Strategic Encirclement: China’s China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), development of the Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka, and infrastructure projects in Nepal are part of China’s “String of Pearls” strategy, which aims to encircle India and reduce its influence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).
Economic Diplomacy: India has faced challenges in countering China’s economic influence, as many of its neighbors have welcomed Chinese investments. For instance, Sri Lanka has turned to China for loans and infrastructure development despite India’s historical ties with the island nation.
Example: China’s construction of a military base in Djibouti and its involvement in the development of Gwadar Port in Pakistan raise concerns for India’s maritime security in the Indian Ocean.
India’s Response: India has strengthened its Indian Ocean strategy through initiatives like Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) and increased defense cooperation with France, Japan, and Australia to counter China’s influence.
4. Impact of U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy on India’s Regional Role
The U.S.’s Indo-Pacific strategy aims to counter China’s growing influence in the region, positioning India as a key partner in maintaining a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific. This has increased India’s responsibility in ensuring maritime security and economic stability in the region.
Impact on India:
Enhanced Strategic Partnerships: India’s involvement in initiatives like the QUAD and AUKUS signals its increasing role in Indo-Pacific security. These alliances have strengthened military cooperation, joint naval exercises, and information-sharing on maritime security.
Economic Integration: India’s role in the Indo-Pacific also involves economic partnerships. However, India opted out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) in 2020 due to concerns over its trade deficits with China and fears of economic dependence.
Example: India’s participation in the Malabar naval exercises alongside the U.S., Japan, and Australia has enhanced its blue-water naval capabilities, positioning it as a key maritime power in the Indo-Pacific.
5. Global Focus on Climate Change and Energy Transition
The increasing global focus on climate change and the transition to green energy has major implications for India’s development goals and energy security. The shift to renewable energy sources in developed countries is driving new alliances and trade dynamics that affect India.
Impact on India:
Pressure to Reduce Emissions: Developed countries have called on India to commit to more ambitious climate goals, such as achieving net-zero emissions by 2070, announced at COP26. This pressure could impact India’s industrial policies and energy sector, which still relies heavily on coal.
Strategic Alliances in Green Energy: India is forming partnerships with countries like France, Germany, and Japan for green energy investments, especially in solar energy and electric mobility.
Example: The International Solar Alliance (ISA), co-founded by India and France, has become a key platform for promoting solar energy deployment in developing countries, enhancing India’s role in the global green energy transition.
Proposed Diplomatic Strategies for India Amid Global Uncertainties
Strengthening Strategic Autonomy: India should continue to uphold its principle of strategic autonomy by maintaining balanced relations with major powers such as the U.S., Russia, and China. This approach will enable India to safeguard its security interests while avoiding entanglements in global power rivalries.
Diversifying Defense Partnerships: India should diversify its defense partnerships by engaging more with countries like France, Israel, and Japan to reduce its over-dependence on Russia. Increased collaboration in indigenous defense manufacturing under programs like Make in India will also enhance India’s defense capabilities.
Enhancing Regional Diplomacy: India must continue to strengthen its influence in South Asia through economic cooperation, infrastructure development, and capacity building. Initiatives like Neighborhood First and enhanced cooperation in regional organizations such as BIMSTEC and SAARC should be prioritized to counter China’s growing presence.
Leveraging Multilateral Platforms: India should leverage its growing global stature in multilateral platforms like the G20, BRICS, and United Nations, where it can advocate for a rules-based international order and address global issues like trade, climate change, and technology governance.
Fostering Indo-Pacific Economic Cooperation: As the Indo-Pacific becomes a key strategic and economic theatre, India should enhance its economic partnerships with countries in the region through free trade agreements (FTAs), digital trade, and blue economy initiatives. Participation in regional economic frameworks like Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) can strengthen India’s position.
In the current era of shifting geopolitical alliances, particularly after the COVID-19 pandemic, the foreign policies and strategic interests of major powers like the U.S., China, and Russia have significant implications for India’s national security and regional stability. By adopting nuanced diplomatic strategies, maintaining strategic autonomy, and enhancing regional and global partnerships, India can navigate these uncertainties while safeguarding its national interests.