Q.14 Is climate change a disaster risk? How is disaster risk magnified by climate change? Discuss with reference to disasters in Assam.
25,Oct 2024
Posted By : SPM Academy
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Yes, climate change is a significant driver of disaster risk. It exacerbates natural hazards by altering weather patterns, intensifying extreme events, and impacting environmental stability. As highlighted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate change increases the frequency and severity of disasters such as floods, droughts, and cyclones, making them more difficult to predict and manage. These risks are particularly acute in vulnerable regions like Assam, where recurring natural disasters such as flooding, riverbank erosion, and landslides have been magnified by changing climate patterns.
How Climate Change Magnifies Disaster Risk
A. Increased Flooding and River Erosion in Assam:
Assam, with the Brahmaputra River, faces severe annual flooding, impacting over 31% of the state’s area. Climate change has intensified monsoon variability and increased glacier melt in the Himalayas, contributing to higher river flows and more severe floods.
According to the IPCC’s 6th Assessment Report, increased rainfall variability due to climate change is a major factor behind extreme floods in regions like Assam. This worsens riverbank erosion, displacing thousands of families annually and causing massive agricultural losses.
B. Erratic Monsoons and Droughts:
Assam, heavily reliant on rain-fed agriculture, is highly sensitive to monsoon fluctuations. Climate change causes erratic rainfall patterns, resulting in periods of drought, which reduces water availability for crops and contributes to food insecurity.
The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) emphasizes that regions dependent on monsoons, such as Assam, are particularly vulnerable to changing rainfall patterns. This leads to more frequent droughts in some areas and floods in others, placing immense stress on local agriculture.
C. Increased Frequency of Extreme Weather Events:
Assam has been experiencing more frequent extreme weather events such as severe storms and flash floods. Climate models indicate that rising global temperatures will continue to drive such extremes, increasing the intensity and unpredictability of disasters in the region.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 10-Point Agenda on Disaster Risk Reduction highlights the need for countries like India to address climate-related risks by integrating climate resilience into disaster management strategies. One of the key points calls for improving early warning systems for such weather extremes.
D. Impact on Ecosystems and Livelihoods:
Climate change-induced disasters not only destroy infrastructure but also disrupt ecosystems. In Assam, floods and changing climate patterns threaten biodiversity in critical areas like Kaziranga National Park, where increased floods endanger both wildlife and local communities dependent on eco-tourism.
A study by the Assam State Disaster Management Authority (ASDMA) shows that floods have caused the loss of thousands of hectares of agricultural land, further intensifying the economic vulnerability of Assam’s rural population.
E. Urban Flooding and Infrastructure Strain:
Urban areas like Guwahati face growing risks of urban flooding, exacerbated by poor drainage and unplanned urbanization. The combination of climate change and rapid urban expansion has led to increased waterlogging, with IPCC reports indicating that climate-driven extreme precipitation events are only expected to worsen this problem in Assam’s cities.
Recommendations and Contemporary Measures
A. Adaptation and Resilience:
The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the UNFCCC Paris Agreement both stress the importance of integrating climate adaptation into disaster management frameworks. Assam must strengthen its flood management systems, invest in climate-resilient infrastructure, and improve riverbank protection measures.
Afforestation and wetland restoration projects can also reduce the impacts of climate change on flooding and erosion in Assam’s floodplains.
B. Early Warning Systems and Community Preparedness:
As suggested in PM Modi’s 10-Point Agenda, improving early warning systems for climate-related disasters is critical. Assam needs to adopt technology-based solutions such as satellite monitoring (already used by ISRO) to track changing weather patterns and issue timely warnings.
Community-based disaster management programs can empower local populations in Assam to better prepare for and respond to natural disasters worsened by climate change.
Climate change is undeniably a disaster risk multiplier in Assam, exacerbating floods, droughts, and extreme weather events. Reports from IPCC, UNFCCC, and national disaster frameworks emphasize the urgent need to integrate climate adaptation and disaster resilience strategies to protect vulnerable communities in Assam. Only by addressing both the immediate risks and the long-term impacts of climate change can Assam build a sustainable and resilient future.